Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer in three basis, China currently only still need to import large amounts of potassium, nitrogen and phosphorus to produce dependence on exports, but whether it is a large number of exports and imports in China in the international fertilizer market will undoubtedly have a considerable voice. India, another country that plays an important role in the international fertilizer market, is different from us. They need a large amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. All along, in the geographical position and the influence of the factors such as the use of fertilizer and other factors, India and China's fertilizer market can be described as love hate intertwined.
2015/2016 at home and abroad all the fertilizer market was shrouded in haze, the buyer the right to speak is aggravating, to have been dependent on the export of urea, diammonium phosphate, bitter days. Customs data show that 1-4 months of this year, China's fertilizer exports 7 million 740 thousand tons, down 26.7%; the amount of exports 1 billion 898 million U.S. dollars, down 39.8%. The data is not deceptive, this time not to mention the country gradually cancel the preferential policies, to enjoy the recovery of the VAT fertilizer, fertilizer consumption in 2020 to zero growth for the grand goal of the fertilizer market "it pours" thing, say more are tears.
A urea tender India just ended, a total of the 625 thousand tons of urea, and one of our sources of only hundreds of thousands of tons, and only $217-218 / ton fob. Bangladesh also just the end of the next fiscal year (June 30, 2016 to July 1, 2017) 350 thousand tons of phosphate tender, CIF quotation interval 10 supplier minimum only US $334.89-341.88 / ton; before that, China and India NFL company reached 50 thousand tons of phosphate tender, bid price is $350.45 / ton. What does this mean? Urea means fierce competition, even accepted price may not be exported in large quantities, or to a large number of export must be lower and far lower prices; later a large number of means that India will further depress prices for dap. From the comparison in the table below. It is not difficult to find, at present, urea, diammonium export price lower than the domestic market, in fact, even in the industry in general has been lower than the cost. The "dependency" obviously, the "hate" has!
Facing the embarrassment of urea and diammonium phosphate, potassium chloride had touzhuoyue. Last year, China's imports of potassium chloride contract is $315, $332 in India, the new contract in China has not signed, but the India side is first made a $297 transitional price, and recently in a small tender has been the price of $more than and 250, and at the same time in addition, the Brazil region mainly import the Southeast Asian market has been low, so there is a huge weight of us, not to hard negotiations has can get 250 dollars less than the price, and we have every reason to believe that, as long as no accident, we get the price of US $200-230 there are great potential (to discount CIF).
However, so far, China's major contract negotiations have not yet been a result, most of the industry believes that in the end of May to talk about the possibility of a larger, but some people think it will be dragged into the second half. Have to say, long time variables will also increase, but we are not representative of the negotiations, a large number of items we are not, at the same time, there is no need to engage in too deep. Now we just need to know, at least it really clear before, worried about the results causing prices to fall further concerns will make the potassium chloride market downturn trend is hard to change, recently the price of potassium chloride is likely to gradually began to fall.